Waymo to Go? Disengagements Every 12K Miles vs. Human Accidents Every 500K
American drives 3T miles each year. There are 6M accidents each year. That comes out to be 1 accident per 0.5M miles. Waymo’s disenagement rate was 1 per 12K miles. \ https://x.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1499803694522589187
While disengagement and accidents are not the same, one can argue that for acceptable L5 self-driving, driver is not expected to be engaged and therefore we need these rates to be same. \
If disengagement rate continues improving 50%/yr, it would take at least 10 yrs before it becomes acceptable. With this rather naive guestimates, it appears L5 self-driving may happen around 2032. @ID_AA_Carmack might lose the bet against @codinghorror by few yrs. \
Lesson learned: Use base-2 system, not decimal. Make bets for 16 years, not 10.